Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $35.12 - $57.90 | $45.24 |
| Multi-Stage | $43.69 - $47.73 | $45.67 |
| Blended Fair Value | $45.45 | |
| Current Price | $65.67 | |
| Upside | -30.78% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.08% | 4.56% | 1.94 | 1.84 | 1.76 | 1.68 | 1.63 | 1.59 | 1.54 | 1.46 | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 5.12% | 4.41% | 5.02% | 2.91% | 2.95% | 3.03% | 5.13% | 4.58% | 5.26% | 7.31% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.75% | 3.01% | 2.85% | 2.67% | 3.11% | 3.71% | 3.29% | 3.37% | 3.30% | 2.84% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 13,031.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 8,476.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,555.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,606.20 | 1,628.88 | 977.33 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,555.00 | 4,555.00 | 4,555.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,606.20 | -1,628.88 | -977.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,948.80 | 2,926.13 | 3,577.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,315.25 | 4,315.25 | 4,315.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.45 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.45 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.42 | 2.64 | 2.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.08% | 3.08% | 4.08% |
| Fair Value | $35.12 | $45.24 | $57.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -46.51% | -31.11% | -11.83% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 13,031.00 | 13,432.01 | 13,845.36 | 14,271.42 | 14,710.60 | 15,163.30 | 15,618.20 |
| Payout Ratio | 65.04% | 70.04% | 75.03% | 80.02% | 85.01% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 8,476.00 | 9,407.23 | 10,387.75 | 11,419.70 | 12,505.33 | 13,646.97 | 14,446.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.08% | 3.08% | 4.08% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 8,539.08 | 8,622.73 | 8,706.39 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 8,558.94 | 8,727.46 | 8,897.62 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 8,540.88 | 8,794.36 | 9,052.81 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 8,489.71 | 8,827.31 | 9,174.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 8,409.75 | 8,829.83 | 9,266.53 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 145,992.99 | 153,285.58 | 160,866.72 |
| Equity Value (M) | 188,531.35 | 197,087.27 | 205,964.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,315.25 | 4,315.25 | 4,315.25 |
| Fair Value | $43.69 | $45.67 | $47.73 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.47% | -30.45% | -27.32% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |