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Definitive Analysis

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PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,839.59 - $15,033.91$5,651.63
Multi-Stage$2,250.20 - $2,465.37$2,355.78
Blended Fair Value$4,003.70
Current Price$1,130.00
Upside254.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.31%6.05%31.4538.5535.7828.7926.7326.7325.7022.6219.5319.53
YoY Growth---18.42%7.75%24.30%7.69%0.00%4.00%13.64%15.79%0.00%11.76%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.63%1.70%1.79%1.70%2.23%1.72%1.51%1.27%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,493,602.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,635,802.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)698,720.57436,700.36262,020.21
Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.361,857,800.361,857,800.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-698,720.57-436,700.36-262,020.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,159,079.781,421,100.001,595,780.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
LTM Dividend per Share35.8835.8835.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.3067.0570.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$2,839.59$5,651.63$15,033.91
Upside / Downside151.29%400.14%1,230.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,493,602.863,670,055.383,855,420.054,050,146.994,254,709.064,469,603.024,603,691.11
Payout Ratio46.82%55.46%64.09%72.73%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,635,802.502,035,347.972,471,080.472,945,636.183,461,825.274,022,642.724,258,414.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)1,896,547.021,914,774.161,933,001.30
Year 2 PV (M)2,145,540.822,186,979.282,228,814.08
Year 3 PV (M)2,383,164.082,452,538.162,523,245.67
Year 4 PV (M)2,609,786.192,711,569.262,816,300.88
Year 5 PV (M)2,825,765.992,964,189.123,107,984.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,729,888.9895,174,388.4799,791,381.01
Equity Value (M)102,590,693.09107,404,438.45112,400,727.46
Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
Fair Value$2,250.20$2,355.78$2,465.37
Upside / Downside99.13%108.48%118.17%

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