Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kemira Oyj (KEMIRA.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.05 - $44.81$31.70
Multi-Stage$36.73 - $40.33$38.50
Blended Fair Value$35.10
Current Price$19.67
Upside78.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.29%1.99%0.670.610.570.610.550.520.560.560.560.56
YoY Growth--9.98%7.09%-6.72%11.20%5.93%-7.33%0.46%0.46%-0.12%0.70%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.50%3.53%5.17%4.22%5.90%5.01%5.38%4.84%5.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)112.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9228.0816.85
Cash Retained (M)112.60112.60112.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.92-28.08-16.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.6884.5395.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.30155.30155.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Fair Value$23.05$31.70$44.81
Upside / Downside17.19%61.14%127.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.60229.70234.92240.25245.71251.29258.83
Payout Ratio49.87%57.89%65.92%73.95%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)112.00132.98154.86177.66201.42226.16239.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)123.81125.04126.26
Year 2 PV (M)134.24136.91139.60
Year 3 PV (M)143.39147.68152.05
Year 4 PV (M)151.36157.43163.67
Year 5 PV (M)158.24166.21174.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,993.725,245.195,506.69
Equity Value (M)5,704.765,978.446,262.76
Shares Outstanding (M)155.30155.30155.30
Fair Value$36.73$38.50$40.33
Upside / Downside86.75%95.71%105.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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