Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$884.48 - $1,042.07$976.57
Multi-Stage$347.78 - $381.44$364.29
Blended Fair Value$670.43
Current Price$123.51
Upside442.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS71.94%30.25%2.301.501.430.771.440.150.290.180.510.12
YoY Growth--53.33%4.90%85.71%-46.25%836.10%-46.67%60.58%-65.03%339.35%-28.96%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.87%4.38%3.93%5.78%0.62%1.16%0.72%2.06%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68,352.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,909.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,442.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,670.408,544.005,126.40
Cash Retained (M)47,442.4047,442.4047,442.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,670.40-8,544.00-5,126.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,772.0038,898.4042,316.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,044.7713,044.7713,044.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.592.983.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.592.983.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.194.584.85
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$884.48$976.57$1,042.07
Upside / Downside616.12%690.68%743.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68,352.0072,794.8877,526.5582,565.7787,932.5593,648.1696,457.61
Payout Ratio30.59%42.47%54.35%66.24%78.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,909.6030,918.0642,139.2754,688.6168,691.3384,283.3589,223.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29,286.1829,563.7729,841.37
Year 2 PV (M)37,808.3838,528.5239,255.46
Year 3 PV (M)46,478.1147,812.3349,171.84
Year 4 PV (M)55,297.3157,423.8959,611.22
Year 5 PV (M)64,267.9467,372.1070,595.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,303,573.204,511,437.404,727,257.05
Equity Value (M)4,536,711.134,752,138.024,975,732.02
Shares Outstanding (M)13,044.7713,044.7713,044.77
Fair Value$347.78$364.29$381.44
Upside / Downside181.58%194.95%208.83%

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