Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.11 - $440.03$223.84
Multi-Stage$107.96 - $118.28$113.03
Blended Fair Value$168.43
Current Price$92.80
Upside81.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.06%0.00%0.560.570.570.570.570.570.420.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.28%-0.09%-0.17%0.13%0.10%33.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.38%0.52%0.60%0.65%0.82%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)98.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.7712.367.41
Cash Retained (M)88.4488.4488.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.77-12.36-7.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.6776.0881.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.6218.6218.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.694.094.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.694.094.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.644.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Fair Value$139.11$223.84$440.03
Upside / Downside49.91%141.20%374.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)98.84104.22109.88115.86122.16128.80132.66
Payout Ratio10.52%26.42%42.31%58.21%74.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4027.5346.5067.4490.52115.92122.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Year 1 PV (M)25.3425.5825.82
Year 2 PV (M)39.3840.1440.91
Year 3 PV (M)52.5754.1055.65
Year 4 PV (M)64.9567.4770.07
Year 5 PV (M)76.5480.2884.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,751.891,837.391,926.19
Equity Value (M)2,010.682,104.962,202.79
Shares Outstanding (M)18.6218.6218.62
Fair Value$107.96$113.03$118.28
Upside / Downside16.34%21.79%27.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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