Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.53 - $7.71 | $6.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $10.29 - $11.28 | $10.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $8.70 | |
| Current Price | $7.33 | |
| Upside | 18.64% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -5.70% | -6.31% | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -27.37% | 5.88% | 3.65% | -10.28% | 4.27% | -12.86% | 0.57% | -10.01% | -2.70% | -8.91% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.99% | 5.87% | 3.92% | 4.06% | 4.31% | 4.99% | 4.60% | 4.65% | 6.24% | 5.50% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 38.31 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 24.30 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 14.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 7.66 | 4.79 | 2.87 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 14.02 | 14.02 | 14.02 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -7.66 | -4.79 | -2.87 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 6.35 | 9.23 | 11.14 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 40.91 | 40.91 | 40.91 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.87 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.92% | -2.92% | -1.92% |
| Fair Value | $5.53 | $6.62 | $7.71 |
| Upside / Downside | -24.59% | -9.73% | 5.16% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 38.31 | 37.19 | 36.10 | 35.05 | 34.02 | 33.03 | 34.02 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.42% | 68.74% | 74.05% | 79.37% | 84.68% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 24.30 | 25.56 | 26.74 | 27.82 | 28.81 | 29.72 | 31.47 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.92% | -2.92% | -1.92% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 23.19 | 23.43 | 23.67 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 22.00 | 22.46 | 22.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 20.77 | 21.42 | 22.09 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 19.51 | 20.34 | 21.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 18.26 | 19.23 | 20.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 317.03 | 333.87 | 351.43 |
| Equity Value (M) | 420.76 | 440.76 | 461.55 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 40.91 | 40.91 | 40.91 |
| Fair Value | $10.29 | $10.77 | $11.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 40.33% | 47.00% | 53.93% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |