Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.78 - $143.96$125.92
Multi-Stage$18.56 - $20.29$19.41
Blended Fair Value$72.67
Current Price$6.73
Upside979.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.400.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.16%5.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.5621.6012.96
Cash Retained (M)72.9572.9572.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.56-21.60-12.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.3951.3559.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.72238.72238.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.78$125.92$143.96
Upside / Downside491.13%1,771.00%2,039.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.80184.04196.00208.74222.31236.76243.86
Payout Ratio57.78%64.23%70.67%77.11%83.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.85118.20138.51160.97185.75213.08225.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)109.39110.43111.47
Year 2 PV (M)118.64120.90123.18
Year 3 PV (M)127.60131.26135.00
Year 4 PV (M)136.28141.52146.91
Year 5 PV (M)144.68151.67158.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,795.153,978.464,168.78
Equity Value (M)4,431.754,634.244,844.26
Shares Outstanding (M)238.72238.72238.72
Fair Value$18.56$19.41$20.29
Upside / Downside175.85%188.45%201.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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