Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HUB24 Limited (HUB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.29 - $14.68$12.44
Multi-Stage$16.24 - $17.81$17.01
Blended Fair Value$14.73
Current Price$89.17
Upside-83.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS55.96%0.00%0.420.360.250.120.060.050.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.29%41.87%117.12%85.28%37.83%11.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.78%1.00%0.58%0.22%0.49%0.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3315.839.50
Cash Retained (M)80.7280.7280.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.33-15.83-9.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.3964.8971.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.3683.3683.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.780.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.780.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.29$12.44$14.68
Upside / Downside-88.46%-86.04%-83.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.64125.38124.12122.88121.65120.44124.05
Payout Ratio36.27%47.01%57.76%68.51%79.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.9358.9471.6984.1896.41108.39114.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)53.2553.7954.34
Year 2 PV (M)58.5159.7160.92
Year 3 PV (M)62.0763.9965.95
Year 4 PV (M)64.2266.8869.62
Year 5 PV (M)65.2268.6272.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,050.191,104.881,161.82
Equity Value (M)1,353.461,417.871,484.81
Shares Outstanding (M)83.3683.3683.36
Fair Value$16.24$17.01$17.81
Upside / Downside-81.79%-80.93%-80.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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