Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.08 - $7.43$6.21
Multi-Stage$9.03 - $9.91$9.46
Blended Fair Value$7.84
Current Price$63.64
Upside-87.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.85%0.00%0.831.161.520.200.204.586.8615.170.000.00
YoY Growth---28.25%-23.33%661.98%0.58%-95.68%-33.34%-54.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.92%4.13%0.54%1.16%43.09%22.09%69.08%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.034.402.64
Cash Retained (M)18.6318.6318.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.03-4.40-2.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.5914.2315.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)52.5352.5352.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.08$6.21$7.43
Upside / Downside-92.02%-90.23%-88.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.1734.8234.4734.1333.7933.4534.45
Payout Ratio47.04%55.63%64.22%72.82%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.5419.3722.1424.8527.5030.1031.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.7017.8818.06
Year 2 PV (M)18.4918.8619.25
Year 3 PV (M)18.9619.5520.14
Year 4 PV (M)19.1819.9720.79
Year 5 PV (M)19.1820.1821.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)380.74400.57421.21
Equity Value (M)474.24497.01520.67
Shares Outstanding (M)52.5352.5352.53
Fair Value$9.03$9.46$9.91
Upside / Downside-85.81%-85.13%-84.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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