Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Harn Engineering Solutions Public Company Limited (HARN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.06 - $1.56$1.30
Multi-Stage$2.57 - $2.83$2.70
Blended Fair Value$2.00
Current Price$1.99
Upside0.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.30%-1.21%0.150.130.100.130.180.160.140.090.060.09
YoY Growth--15.30%30.00%-23.08%-27.78%12.50%14.29%55.56%50.30%-33.33%-46.97%
Dividend Yield--7.07%5.91%4.72%5.56%7.32%9.04%5.98%2.96%2.30%3.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.1310.086.05
Cash Retained (M)10.4910.4910.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.13-10.08-6.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.640.414.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)584.50584.50584.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-3.30%-2.30%-1.30%
Fair Value$1.06$1.30$1.56
Upside / Downside-46.81%-34.75%-21.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.6378.7876.9775.2073.4771.7973.94
Payout Ratio86.99%87.59%88.19%88.80%89.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.1469.0067.8866.7865.6864.6168.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-3.30%-2.30%-1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)63.9664.6265.28
Year 2 PV (M)58.3259.5360.75
Year 3 PV (M)53.1754.8456.54
Year 4 PV (M)48.4850.5152.61
Year 5 PV (M)44.2046.5348.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,235.761,300.991,368.95
Equity Value (M)1,503.881,577.021,653.09
Shares Outstanding (M)584.50584.50584.50
Fair Value$2.57$2.70$2.83
Upside / Downside29.29%35.58%42.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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