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Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.66 - $289.67$196.68
Multi-Stage$100.41 - $109.79$105.02
Blended Fair Value$150.85
Current Price$73.86
Upside104.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-14.09%0.070.070.060.000.000.000.240.250.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%2.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-1.37%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.11%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.61%2.26%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)338.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.7342.3325.40
Cash Retained (M)335.80335.80335.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.73-42.33-25.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.06293.46310.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.2044.2044.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.066.647.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.066.647.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.136.707.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.13%10.13%10.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.66$196.68$289.67
Upside / Downside89.09%166.29%292.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)338.67360.69384.13409.10435.69464.01477.93
Payout Ratio0.85%18.68%36.51%54.34%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.8867.37140.24222.30314.44417.61442.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.13%10.13%10.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.6061.1861.75
Year 2 PV (M)113.47115.63117.81
Year 3 PV (M)161.78166.43171.16
Year 4 PV (M)205.83213.75221.89
Year 5 PV (M)245.90257.77270.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,650.743,827.074,010.15
Equity Value (M)4,438.324,641.834,852.87
Shares Outstanding (M)44.2044.2044.20
Fair Value$100.41$105.02$109.79
Upside / Downside35.95%42.18%48.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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