Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Goel Food Products Limited (GOEL.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.35 - $55.40$46.65
Multi-Stage$60.80 - $66.93$63.80
Blended Fair Value$55.22
Current Price$14.93
Upside269.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1212.577.54
Cash Retained (M)98.6998.6998.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.12-12.57-7.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.5886.1291.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8518.8518.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.174.574.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.174.574.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.274.674.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$38.35$46.65$55.40
Upside / Downside156.84%212.44%271.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.5899.5798.5797.5996.6195.6598.52
Payout Ratio1.87%19.50%37.12%54.75%72.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.8919.4236.5953.4369.9286.0891.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.6517.8318.01
Year 2 PV (M)30.2330.8531.48
Year 3 PV (M)40.1241.3642.63
Year 4 PV (M)47.7349.7051.74
Year 5 PV (M)53.4056.1959.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)957.051,006.891,058.78
Equity Value (M)1,146.191,202.821,261.72
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8518.8518.85
Fair Value$60.80$63.80$66.93
Upside / Downside307.22%327.35%348.27%

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