Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grindrod Limited (GND.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.84 - $108.98$78.59
Multi-Stage$53.17 - $58.06$55.57
Blended Fair Value$67.08
Current Price$12.46
Upside438.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.66%6.20%0.720.671.010.070.240.310.110.110.170.53
YoY Growth--8.47%-33.72%1,345.71%-70.74%-22.63%189.35%-7.40%-32.33%-68.08%33.98%
Dividend Yield--6.07%5.83%10.09%1.41%4.72%6.12%1.73%0.87%1.26%4.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,474.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,016.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,458.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)494.95309.35185.61
Cash Retained (M)1,458.601,458.601,458.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-494.95-309.35-185.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)963.651,149.251,272.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)667.97667.97667.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.441.721.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.521.521.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.441.721.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.963.243.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate4.20%5.20%6.20%
Fair Value$57.84$78.59$108.98
Upside / Downside364.19%530.70%774.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,474.762,603.352,738.632,880.933,030.633,188.103,283.75
Payout Ratio41.06%50.85%60.64%70.42%80.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,016.161,323.781,660.612,028.882,430.932,869.293,037.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate4.20%5.20%6.20%
Year 1 PV (M)1,197.051,208.531,220.02
Year 2 PV (M)1,357.881,384.071,410.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,500.191,543.791,588.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,625.391,688.691,753.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,734.831,819.691,907.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,099.7729,474.3130,902.12
Equity Value (M)35,515.1037,119.0838,782.55
Shares Outstanding (M)667.97667.97667.97
Fair Value$53.17$55.57$58.06
Upside / Downside326.72%345.99%365.98%

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