Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V. (GCARSOA1.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.82 - $217.61$143.09
Multi-Stage$71.91 - $78.57$75.18
Blended Fair Value$109.14
Current Price$133.76
Upside-18.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.04%5.91%1.770.801.111.050.351.261.240.681.441.18
YoY Growth--121.44%-28.11%5.92%200.84%-72.30%1.96%82.33%-52.86%21.92%18.26%
Dividend Yield--1.49%0.54%1.24%1.41%0.62%2.71%1.66%1.07%1.67%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,616.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,767.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,849.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,323.281,452.05871.23
Cash Retained (M)9,849.339,849.339,849.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,323.28-1,452.05-871.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,526.058,397.288,978.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,256.922,256.922,256.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.333.723.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.333.723.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.124.504.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$99.82$143.09$217.61
Upside / Downside-25.37%6.98%62.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,616.4112,371.4813,175.6214,032.0414,944.1215,915.4916,392.96
Payout Ratio15.21%30.17%45.13%60.08%75.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,767.083,732.425,945.798,431.1211,214.4314,323.9415,163.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,365.783,397.683,429.59
Year 2 PV (M)4,835.034,927.135,020.09
Year 3 PV (M)6,182.596,360.076,540.91
Year 4 PV (M)7,415.787,700.977,994.31
Year 5 PV (M)8,541.578,954.139,382.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,964.84138,338.79144,956.69
Equity Value (M)162,305.59169,678.77177,324.06
Shares Outstanding (M)2,256.922,256.922,256.92
Fair Value$71.91$75.18$78.57
Upside / Downside-46.24%-43.79%-41.26%

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