Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Friedman Industries, Incorporated (FRD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.83 - $325.60$106.59
Multi-Stage$32.96 - $36.07$34.49
Blended Fair Value$70.54
Current Price$21.90
Upside222.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.83%7.44%0.160.080.080.080.080.120.170.040.040.04
YoY Growth--91.91%-1.36%6.90%-2.34%-32.83%-29.51%325.00%2.30%0.77%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.57%0.67%0.97%0.60%2.38%2.52%0.50%0.69%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.291.430.86
Cash Retained (M)10.3110.3110.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.29-1.43-0.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.028.889.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.986.986.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.271.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.271.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate5.44%6.44%7.44%
Fair Value$56.83$106.59$325.60
Upside / Downside159.50%386.69%1,386.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.4312.1712.9513.7914.6715.6216.09
Payout Ratio9.82%25.86%41.89%57.93%73.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.123.155.437.9910.8514.0614.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate5.44%6.44%7.44%
Year 1 PV (M)2.892.922.94
Year 2 PV (M)4.584.664.75
Year 3 PV (M)6.186.366.54
Year 4 PV (M)7.728.028.32
Year 5 PV (M)9.189.6210.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)199.43209.07219.08
Equity Value (M)229.98240.65251.72
Shares Outstanding (M)6.986.986.98
Fair Value$32.96$34.49$36.07
Upside / Downside50.49%57.47%64.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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