Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.72 - $15.64 | $13.75 |
| Multi-Stage | $24.60 - $27.08 | $25.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19.78 | |
| Current Price | $45.01 | |
| Upside | -56.05% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.23% | -3.12% | 0.77 | 1.42 | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.40 | 1.32 | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -45.85% | 7.42% | -10.89% | 0.34% | 5.97% | 5.71% | 7.77% | 6.00% | 5.52% | 3.76% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.67% | 3.82% | 3.16% | 3.12% | 4.75% | 5.32% | 3.72% | 4.41% | 4.51% | 4.29% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,821.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,594.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,227.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 564.20 | 352.63 | 211.58 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,227.00 | 1,227.00 | 1,227.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -564.20 | -352.63 | -211.58 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 662.80 | 874.38 | 1,015.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,007.39 | 1,007.39 | 1,007.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.66 | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.66 | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.24 | 2.45 | 2.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -8.40% | -7.40% | -6.40% |
| Fair Value | $11.72 | $13.75 | $15.64 |
| Upside / Downside | -73.95% | -69.45% | -65.25% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,821.00 | 2,612.16 | 2,418.78 | 2,239.71 | 2,073.91 | 1,920.37 | 1,977.98 |
| Payout Ratio | 56.50% | 63.20% | 69.90% | 76.60% | 83.30% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,594.00 | 1,650.98 | 1,690.80 | 1,715.66 | 1,727.58 | 1,728.33 | 1,829.63 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -8.40% | -7.40% | -6.40% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,496.96 | 1,513.30 | 1,529.65 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,390.04 | 1,420.55 | 1,451.40 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,278.89 | 1,321.24 | 1,364.51 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,167.64 | 1,219.47 | 1,273.01 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,059.17 | 1,118.26 | 1,179.96 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,387.16 | 19,413.01 | 20,484.15 |
| Equity Value (M) | 24,779.86 | 26,005.84 | 27,282.69 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,007.39 | 1,007.39 | 1,007.39 |
| Fair Value | $24.60 | $25.82 | $27.08 |
| Upside / Downside | -45.35% | -42.65% | -39.83% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |