Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.11 - $37.44 | $29.55 |
| Multi-Stage | $30.86 - $33.66 | $32.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $30.89 | |
| Current Price | $52.34 | |
| Upside | -40.98% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 11.38% | -5.04% | 2.04 | 1.80 | 1.36 | 0.31 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.28% | 33.14% | 343.83% | -74.87% | 1.92% | -3.59% | -0.83% | 0.64% | -5.23% | -61.85% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.22% | 2.98% | 2.80% | 0.77% | 3.40% | 4.86% | 2.52% | 2.58% | 4.37% | 3.70% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 393.49 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 379.46 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 14.03 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 78.70 | 49.19 | 29.51 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 14.03 | 14.03 | 14.03 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -78.70 | -49.19 | -29.51 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -64.67 | -35.16 | -15.48 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 188.84 | 188.84 | 188.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.34 | -0.19 | -0.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.34 | -0.19 | -0.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.67 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.76% | 2.76% | 3.76% |
| Fair Value | $23.11 | $29.55 | $37.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.85% | -43.55% | -28.46% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 393.49 | 404.34 | 415.49 | 426.95 | 438.72 | 450.81 | 464.34 |
| Payout Ratio | 96.43% | 95.15% | 93.86% | 92.57% | 91.29% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 379.46 | 384.72 | 389.98 | 395.24 | 400.49 | 405.73 | 429.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.76% | 2.76% | 3.76% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 349.21 | 352.64 | 356.07 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 321.30 | 327.65 | 334.06 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 295.58 | 304.38 | 313.35 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 271.85 | 282.70 | 293.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 249.99 | 262.52 | 275.54 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,339.78 | 4,557.26 | 4,783.37 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,827.71 | 6,087.14 | 6,356.25 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 188.84 | 188.84 | 188.84 |
| Fair Value | $30.86 | $32.23 | $33.66 |
| Upside / Downside | -41.04% | -38.41% | -35.69% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |