Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $12.61 - $18.15 | $15.32 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.12 - $23.16 | $22.12 |
| Blended Fair Value | $18.72 | |
| Current Price | $32.05 | |
| Upside | -41.59% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -19.65% | 0.00% | 0.98 | 3.10 | 1.58 | 2.84 | 0.85 | 2.93 | 4.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -68.41% | 96.58% | -44.45% | 234.11% | -70.94% | -38.88% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.10% | 10.96% | 9.85% | 13.71% | 4.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 991.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 521.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 470.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 198.20 | 123.88 | 74.33 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 470.00 | 470.00 | 470.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -198.20 | -123.88 | -74.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 271.80 | 346.13 | 395.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 554.98 | 554.98 | 554.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.43 | 1.56 | 1.65 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $12.61 | $15.32 | $18.15 |
| Upside / Downside | -60.64% | -52.21% | -43.35% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 991.00 | 981.09 | 971.28 | 961.57 | 951.95 | 942.43 | 970.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.57% | 60.06% | 67.54% | 75.03% | 82.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 521.00 | 589.23 | 656.04 | 721.46 | 785.50 | 848.19 | 897.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 534.64 | 540.09 | 545.55 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 540.11 | 551.18 | 562.38 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 538.93 | 555.60 | 572.60 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 532.40 | 554.47 | 577.21 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 521.63 | 548.79 | 577.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 9,055.48 | 9,527.02 | 10,018.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 11,723.19 | 12,277.16 | 12,852.82 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 554.98 | 554.98 | 554.98 |
| Fair Value | $21.12 | $22.12 | $23.16 |
| Upside / Downside | -34.09% | -30.98% | -27.74% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |