Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $30.48 - $69.34 | $44.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $36.16 - $39.55 | $37.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $41.09 | |
| Current Price | $15.87 | |
| Upside | 158.89% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.23% | -1.62% | 1.30 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -14.38% | 1.31% | 173.29% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 125.78% | 159.31% | -72.92% | -0.20% | -67.03% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.36% | 10.53% | 11.50% | 5.02% | 0.00% | 13.67% | 4.38% | 1.47% | 7.15% | 6.97% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 229.64 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 209.07 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 20.57 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 45.93 | 28.71 | 17.22 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 20.57 | 20.57 | 20.57 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -45.93 | -28.71 | -17.22 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -25.36 | -8.13 | 3.35 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 149.34 | 149.34 | 149.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.05 | 0.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.05 | 0.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.23 | 1.35 | 1.42 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.01% | 7.01% | 7.01% |
| Growth Rate | 2.86% | 3.86% | 4.86% |
| Fair Value | $30.48 | $44.35 | $69.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 92.07% | 179.44% | 336.90% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 229.64 | 238.50 | 247.71 | 257.27 | 267.19 | 277.51 | 285.83 |
| Payout Ratio | 91.04% | 90.83% | 90.62% | 90.42% | 90.21% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 209.07 | 216.64 | 224.48 | 232.61 | 241.03 | 249.76 | 264.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.01% | 7.01% | 7.01% |
| Growth Rate | 2.86% | 3.86% | 4.86% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 200.50 | 202.45 | 204.40 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 192.28 | 196.04 | 199.83 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 184.40 | 189.83 | 195.36 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 176.83 | 183.81 | 190.99 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 169.58 | 177.99 | 186.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,476.56 | 4,698.44 | 4,929.03 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,400.15 | 5,648.55 | 5,906.34 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 149.34 | 149.34 | 149.34 |
| Fair Value | $36.16 | $37.82 | $39.55 |
| Upside / Downside | 127.85% | 138.33% | 149.21% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |