Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.88 - $155.84$146.05
Multi-Stage$20.63 - $22.59$21.59
Blended Fair Value$83.82
Current Price$9.39
Upside792.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.00%-7.90%0.120.100.070.020.020.070.050.040.060.32
YoY Growth--19.32%37.94%300.44%-4.45%-73.24%32.37%51.21%-43.27%-80.44%17.32%
Dividend Yield--1.60%2.05%2.68%0.75%1.17%8.66%1.83%0.62%0.85%9.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.6622.2913.37
Cash Retained (M)145.75145.75145.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.66-22.29-13.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.10123.47132.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.51227.51227.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.88$146.05$155.84
Upside / Downside431.23%1,455.34%1,559.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178.28189.87202.21215.35229.35244.26251.59
Payout Ratio18.25%32.60%46.95%61.30%75.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.5361.8994.93132.01173.50219.83232.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)57.3957.9458.48
Year 2 PV (M)81.6383.1984.76
Year 3 PV (M)105.26108.29111.36
Year 4 PV (M)128.30133.23138.30
Year 5 PV (M)150.74158.02165.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,170.934,372.394,581.55
Equity Value (M)4,694.254,913.045,140.04
Shares Outstanding (M)227.51227.51227.51
Fair Value$20.63$21.59$22.59
Upside / Downside119.74%129.98%140.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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