Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $154.83 - $261.30 | $201.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $180.39 - $197.24 | $188.66 |
| Blended Fair Value | $195.01 | |
| Current Price | $38.17 | |
| Upside | 410.89% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.70% | 0.00% | 2.96 | 2.79 | 2.82 | 3.47 | 1.36 | 2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.05% | -1.08% | -18.75% | 155.64% | -36.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.10% | 8.29% | 9.95% | 6.95% | 2.55% | 6.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 433.55 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 203.37 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 230.18 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 86.71 | 54.19 | 32.52 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 230.18 | 230.18 | 230.18 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -86.71 | -54.19 | -32.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 143.47 | 175.99 | 197.66 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 34.61 | 34.61 | 34.61 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.15 | 5.09 | 5.71 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.88 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.15 | 5.09 | 5.71 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.02 | 10.96 | 11.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.46% | 3.46% | 4.46% |
| Fair Value | $154.83 | $201.35 | $261.30 |
| Upside / Downside | 305.62% | 427.50% | 584.56% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 433.55 | 448.57 | 464.11 | 480.19 | 496.83 | 514.05 | 529.47 |
| Payout Ratio | 46.91% | 55.53% | 64.14% | 72.76% | 81.38% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 203.37 | 249.07 | 297.70 | 349.40 | 404.33 | 462.64 | 489.76 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.46% | 3.46% | 4.46% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 226.10 | 228.30 | 230.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 245.31 | 250.12 | 254.98 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 261.35 | 269.08 | 276.95 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 274.53 | 285.41 | 296.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 285.15 | 299.34 | 314.08 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,950.17 | 5,196.48 | 5,452.51 |
| Equity Value (M) | 6,242.60 | 6,528.73 | 6,825.64 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 34.61 | 34.61 | 34.61 |
| Fair Value | $180.39 | $188.66 | $197.24 |
| Upside / Downside | 372.61% | 394.27% | 416.75% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |