Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.58 - $9.69 | $7.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $6.38 - $6.96 | $6.67 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.01 | |
| Current Price | $41.23 | |
| Upside | -83.01% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.50% | -0.90% | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.53% | -50.40% | -34.30% | 46.58% | 18.24% | 6.34% | 5.99% | 8.21% | 8.39% | 7.75% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.60% | 0.67% | 1.72% | 1.85% | 1.60% | 2.05% | 1.80% | 2.09% | 2.04% | 2.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 996.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 702.33 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 293.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 199.20 | 124.50 | 74.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 293.67 | 293.67 | 293.67 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -199.20 | -124.50 | -74.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 94.47 | 169.17 | 218.97 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.86% | 3.86% | 4.86% |
| Fair Value | $5.58 | $7.35 | $9.69 |
| Upside / Downside | -86.46% | -82.18% | -76.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 996.00 | 1,034.49 | 1,074.46 | 1,115.98 | 1,159.10 | 1,203.89 | 1,240.00 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.51% | 74.41% | 78.31% | 82.21% | 86.10% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 702.33 | 769.78 | 841.40 | 917.40 | 998.02 | 1,083.50 | 1,147.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.86% | 3.86% | 4.86% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 698.79 | 705.58 | 712.38 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 693.37 | 706.91 | 720.59 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 686.28 | 706.49 | 727.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 677.74 | 704.48 | 732.01 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 667.94 | 701.04 | 735.45 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,595.37 | 12,170.06 | 12,767.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,019.48 | 15,694.57 | 16,394.83 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 | 2,354.36 |
| Fair Value | $6.38 | $6.67 | $6.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -84.53% | -83.83% | -83.11% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |