Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-PA.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.84 - $4.54$3.61
Multi-Stage$3.89 - $4.26$4.07
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$7.47
Upside-48.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.03%0.00%0.400.780.260.020.040.100.100.100.000.00
YoY Growth---49.46%197.19%981.31%-39.47%-60.72%5.03%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.92%14.67%3.44%0.29%1.54%13.12%2.66%2.63%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.589.125.47
Cash Retained (M)21.2721.2721.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.58-9.12-5.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.6912.1615.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.76272.76272.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Fair Value$2.84$3.61$4.54
Upside / Downside-61.95%-51.62%-39.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.9274.5876.2778.0079.7681.5784.02
Payout Ratio70.83%74.66%78.50%82.33%86.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.6555.6859.8764.2168.7373.4277.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)50.6451.1451.64
Year 2 PV (M)49.5150.4951.49
Year 3 PV (M)48.3049.7451.21
Year 4 PV (M)47.0148.8950.83
Year 5 PV (M)45.6647.9650.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)821.18862.54905.54
Equity Value (M)1,062.301,110.761,161.06
Shares Outstanding (M)272.76272.76272.76
Fair Value$3.89$4.07$4.26
Upside / Downside-47.86%-45.49%-43.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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