Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.73 - $4.02 | $3.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $4.11 - $4.51 | $4.31 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3.83 | |
| Current Price | $9.46 | |
| Upside | -59.54% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -29.23% | -10.63% | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 96.57% | 16.97% | -1.58% | -75.02% | -68.59% | -16.85% | 15.66% | -16.70% | 82.88% | 24.95% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.77% | 0.47% | 0.59% | 0.71% | 2.59% | 15.80% | 8.67% | 4.79% | 6.80% | 4.67% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 165.79 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 39.06 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 126.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 33.16 | 20.72 | 12.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 126.73 | 126.73 | 126.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -33.16 | -20.72 | -12.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 93.57 | 106.01 | 114.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 483.48 | 483.48 | 483.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.87% | 0.13% | 1.13% |
| Fair Value | $2.73 | $3.35 | $4.02 |
| Upside / Downside | -71.17% | -64.60% | -57.46% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 165.79 | 166.01 | 166.22 | 166.43 | 166.64 | 166.85 | 171.86 |
| Payout Ratio | 23.56% | 36.85% | 50.14% | 63.42% | 76.71% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 39.06 | 61.17 | 83.34 | 105.56 | 127.83 | 150.17 | 158.97 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.87% | 0.13% | 1.13% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 55.51 | 56.07 | 56.63 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 68.62 | 70.02 | 71.42 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 78.88 | 81.29 | 83.75 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 86.69 | 90.24 | 93.90 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 92.41 | 97.16 | 102.11 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,604.17 | 1,686.73 | 1,772.66 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,986.27 | 2,081.50 | 2,180.47 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 483.48 | 483.48 | 483.48 |
| Fair Value | $4.11 | $4.31 | $4.51 |
| Upside / Downside | -56.57% | -54.49% | -52.33% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |