Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $10.85 - $16.41 | $13.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $22.76 - $25.00 | $23.86 |
| Blended Fair Value | $18.66 | |
| Current Price | $9.45 | |
| Upside | 97.50% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.38% | 0.00% | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -35.96% | 37.59% | 71.41% | 0.00% | 8.50% | 5.26% | 42.87% | 4.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.98% | 10.77% | 4.82% | 2.56% | 2.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,056.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 759.20 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 297.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 211.28 | 132.05 | 79.23 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 297.20 | 297.20 | 297.20 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -211.28 | -132.05 | -79.23 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 85.92 | 165.15 | 217.97 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 838.34 | 838.34 | 838.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.10% | 7.10% | 7.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $10.85 | $13.47 | $16.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 14.84% | 42.54% | 73.64% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,056.40 | 1,045.84 | 1,035.38 | 1,025.02 | 1,014.77 | 1,004.63 | 1,034.76 |
| Payout Ratio | 71.87% | 75.49% | 79.12% | 82.75% | 86.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 759.20 | 789.54 | 819.19 | 848.17 | 876.49 | 904.16 | 957.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.10% | 7.10% | 7.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 729.73 | 737.17 | 744.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 699.78 | 714.13 | 728.63 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 669.65 | 690.36 | 711.49 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 639.59 | 666.09 | 693.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 609.80 | 641.55 | 674.61 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,731.77 | 16,550.96 | 17,403.92 |
| Equity Value (M) | 19,080.31 | 20,000.27 | 20,956.70 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 838.34 | 838.34 | 838.34 |
| Fair Value | $22.76 | $23.86 | $25.00 |
| Upside / Downside | 140.84% | 152.45% | 164.53% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |