Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $157.19 - $266.57 | $204.83 |
| Multi-Stage | $164.99 - $180.80 | $172.75 |
| Blended Fair Value | $188.79 | |
| Current Price | $326.47 | |
| Upside | -42.17% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.19% | -0.97% | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.19% | 8.33% | -7.18% | -5.24% | -8.17% | 0.00% | -2.80% | -5.73% | -0.87% | 0.88% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.55% | 0.50% | 0.52% | 0.42% | 0.29% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 396.60 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 20.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 376.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 79.32 | 49.58 | 29.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 376.00 | 376.00 | 376.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -79.32 | -49.58 | -29.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 296.68 | 326.43 | 346.26 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 31.65 | 31.65 | 31.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 9.37 | 10.31 | 10.94 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 9.37 | 10.31 | 10.94 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.02 | 10.96 | 11.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.41% | 9.41% | 9.41% |
| Growth Rate | 2.85% | 3.85% | 4.85% |
| Fair Value | $157.19 | $204.83 | $266.57 |
| Upside / Downside | -51.85% | -37.26% | -18.35% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 396.60 | 411.86 | 427.71 | 444.17 | 461.26 | 479.01 | 493.38 |
| Payout Ratio | 5.19% | 22.16% | 39.12% | 56.08% | 73.04% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 20.60 | 91.25 | 167.31 | 249.08 | 336.90 | 431.11 | 456.38 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.41% | 9.41% | 9.41% |
| Growth Rate | 2.85% | 3.85% | 4.85% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 82.60 | 83.40 | 84.21 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 137.09 | 139.77 | 142.48 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 184.75 | 190.20 | 195.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 226.21 | 235.13 | 244.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 262.03 | 275.02 | 288.51 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,329.17 | 4,543.77 | 4,766.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,221.85 | 5,467.29 | 5,722.05 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 31.65 | 31.65 | 31.65 |
| Fair Value | $164.99 | $172.75 | $180.80 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.46% | -47.09% | -44.62% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |