Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Sector

Aspo Oyj (ASPO.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.75 - $9.00$7.25
Multi-Stage$9.24 - $10.16$9.69
Blended Fair Value$8.47
Current Price$5.98
Upside41.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.34%1.66%0.220.430.420.320.200.410.390.380.370.36
YoY Growth---48.08%2.40%28.95%59.41%-49.88%3.06%3.37%2.50%2.80%91.72%
Dividend Yield--4.33%7.10%4.88%4.57%2.29%7.01%4.44%3.82%4.19%4.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.962.481.49
Cash Retained (M)16.9516.9516.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.96-2.48-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.9914.4815.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.78%7.78%7.78%
Growth Rate-0.34%0.66%1.66%
Fair Value$5.75$7.25$9.00
Upside / Downside-3.78%21.22%50.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.8019.9320.0620.1920.3320.4621.07
Payout Ratio14.38%29.50%44.63%59.75%74.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.855.888.9512.0715.2218.4119.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.78%7.78%7.78%
Growth Rate-0.34%0.66%1.66%
Year 1 PV (M)5.405.465.51
Year 2 PV (M)7.567.717.86
Year 3 PV (M)9.359.649.93
Year 4 PV (M)10.8411.2811.73
Year 5 PV (M)12.0512.6613.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)266.96280.63294.85
Equity Value (M)312.16327.37343.19
Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
Fair Value$9.24$9.69$10.16
Upside / Downside54.48%62.01%69.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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