Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1.86 - $2.54 | $2.20 |
| Multi-Stage | $3.88 - $4.25 | $4.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3.13 | |
| Current Price | $8.69 | |
| Upside | -63.98% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | -8.96% | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -25.01% | -17.78% | 8.04% | -13.49% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -8.76% | -14.51% | -0.67% | -1.59% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.08% | 5.35% | 5.88% | 5.09% | 6.09% | 0.00% | 7.05% | 7.72% | 9.56% | 9.03% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4.06 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3.92 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 0.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 0.81 | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -0.81 | -0.51 | -0.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -0.68 | -0.37 | -0.17 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.07 | 11.07 | 11.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -5.77% | -4.77% | -3.77% |
| Fair Value | $1.86 | $2.20 | $2.54 |
| Upside / Downside | -78.61% | -74.65% | -70.82% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4.06 | 3.86 | 3.68 | 3.50 | 3.34 | 3.18 | 3.27 |
| Payout Ratio | 96.64% | 95.31% | 93.98% | 92.66% | 91.33% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3.92 | 3.68 | 3.46 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 2.86 | 3.03 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -5.77% | -4.77% | -3.77% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3.34 | 3.38 | 3.41 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2.84 | 2.91 | 2.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2.42 | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2.06 | 2.15 | 2.24 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1.76 | 1.85 | 1.95 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 30.47 | 32.12 | 33.84 |
| Equity Value (M) | 42.90 | 44.91 | 47.00 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.07 | 11.07 | 11.07 |
| Fair Value | $3.88 | $4.06 | $4.25 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.40% | -53.31% | -51.13% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |