Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Arsagera Asset Management (ARSA.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.87 - $187.36$140.04
Multi-Stage$23.52 - $25.71$24.59
Blended Fair Value$82.31
Current Price$11.20
Upside634.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.06%0.00%0.500.000.000.200.160.150.000.000.000.07
YoY Growth--766,562.50%-72.41%-99.88%25.20%6.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.42%0.00%0.00%3.01%4.02%4.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3314.588.75
Cash Retained (M)55.2355.2355.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.33-14.58-8.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9040.6546.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.82123.82123.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.330.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.330.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.87$140.04$187.36
Upside / Downside336.38%1,150.33%1,572.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.65124.23132.31140.91150.07159.82164.62
Payout Ratio52.65%60.12%67.59%75.06%82.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.4274.6989.43105.77123.85143.84152.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69.0769.7270.38
Year 2 PV (M)76.4777.9379.40
Year 3 PV (M)83.6386.0388.48
Year 4 PV (M)90.5694.0497.62
Year 5 PV (M)97.25101.95106.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,494.652,615.142,740.24
Equity Value (M)2,911.633,044.813,182.94
Shares Outstanding (M)123.82123.82123.82
Fair Value$23.52$24.59$25.71
Upside / Downside109.96%119.56%129.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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