Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.49 - $5.03 | $4.24 |
| Multi-Stage | $8.92 - $9.83 | $9.37 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6.80 | |
| Current Price | $5.10 | |
| Upside | 33.39% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.66% | 1.18% | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | -22.22% | 0.60% | -18.04% | 10.50% | 0.01% | -16.34% | 0.51% | 129.77% | -17.93% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.73% | 5.34% | 6.29% | 5.42% | 6.42% | 8.37% | 5.78% | 4.84% | 3.39% | 1.76% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 129.53 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 89.91 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 39.62 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 25.91 | 16.19 | 9.71 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 39.62 | 39.62 | 39.62 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -25.91 | -16.19 | -9.71 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 13.71 | 23.42 | 29.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 256.90 | 256.90 | 256.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | -4.32% | -3.32% | -2.32% |
| Fair Value | $3.49 | $4.24 | $5.03 |
| Upside / Downside | -31.59% | -16.88% | -1.43% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 129.53 | 125.22 | 121.06 | 117.03 | 113.14 | 109.38 | 112.66 |
| Payout Ratio | 69.42% | 73.53% | 77.65% | 81.77% | 85.88% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 89.91 | 92.08 | 94.00 | 95.69 | 97.17 | 98.44 | 104.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | -4.32% | -3.32% | -2.32% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 85.38 | 86.27 | 87.16 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 80.81 | 82.51 | 84.23 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 76.28 | 78.69 | 81.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 71.81 | 74.86 | 78.01 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 67.46 | 71.06 | 74.81 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,910.94 | 2,012.91 | 2,119.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,292.67 | 2,406.31 | 2,524.56 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 256.90 | 256.90 | 256.90 |
| Fair Value | $8.92 | $9.37 | $9.83 |
| Upside / Downside | 74.99% | 83.66% | 92.69% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |