Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aspen Group (APZ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.49 - $107.63$100.87
Multi-Stage$16.53 - $18.09$17.30
Blended Fair Value$59.08
Current Price$3.95
Upside1,395.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS28.54%2.39%0.090.080.060.040.040.030.020.020.040.05
YoY Growth--20.59%30.57%39.34%13.77%40.57%24.13%-9.36%-36.75%-28.61%-28.96%
Dividend Yield--2.39%4.46%3.43%2.93%2.89%2.71%2.05%2.51%3.44%4.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.1013.197.91
Cash Retained (M)71.7771.7771.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.10-13.19-7.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.6858.5963.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.92194.92194.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.49$100.87$107.63
Upside / Downside1,254.13%2,453.59%2,624.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.49112.35119.65127.43135.71144.53148.87
Payout Ratio31.96%43.57%55.18%66.78%78.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7248.9566.0285.10106.39130.08137.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.5946.0246.46
Year 2 PV (M)57.2858.3759.47
Year 3 PV (M)68.7770.7472.75
Year 4 PV (M)80.0783.1586.32
Year 5 PV (M)91.1995.59100.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,878.223,017.243,161.58
Equity Value (M)3,221.123,371.123,526.75
Shares Outstanding (M)194.92194.92194.92
Fair Value$16.53$17.30$18.09
Upside / Downside318.37%337.85%358.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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