Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Amphenol Corporation (APH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.65 - $128.54$84.23
Multi-Stage$42.49 - $46.40$44.41
Blended Fair Value$64.32
Current Price$123.75
Upside-48.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.32%19.30%0.470.390.380.270.230.220.200.160.140.13
YoY Growth--18.88%4.86%37.70%16.50%6.48%10.17%23.76%18.70%8.41%56.33%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.69%0.92%0.72%0.71%1.21%0.82%0.75%0.76%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,821.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)799.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,021.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)764.20477.63286.58
Cash Retained (M)3,021.803,021.803,021.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-764.20-477.63-286.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,257.602,544.182,735.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.581,271.581,271.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.782.002.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.782.002.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.402.632.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.65$84.23$128.54
Upside / Downside-52.61%-31.94%3.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,821.004,069.374,333.874,615.584,915.595,235.105,392.15
Payout Ratio20.92%34.73%48.55%62.37%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)799.201,413.402,104.082,878.573,744.854,711.594,987.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,274.881,286.971,299.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,711.861,744.471,777.38
Year 3 PV (M)2,112.452,173.092,234.88
Year 4 PV (M)2,478.842,574.172,672.22
Year 5 PV (M)2,813.102,948.973,090.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,636.2145,743.8647,932.17
Equity Value (M)54,027.3456,471.5259,005.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.581,271.581,271.58
Fair Value$42.49$44.41$46.40
Upside / Downside-65.67%-64.11%-62.50%

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