Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.02 - $33.72 | $29.48 |
| Multi-Stage | $48.86 - $53.88 | $51.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $40.40 | |
| Current Price | $78.54 | |
| Upside | -48.56% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.10% | 3.48% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.96 | 2.29 | 1.72 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.50% | 1.53% | -9.33% | -1.81% | -0.99% | -2.11% | -2.90% | -14.58% | 33.46% | 44.38% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.93% | 2.15% | 3.26% | 2.88% | 3.99% | 7.68% | 4.32% | 3.60% | 3.67% | 3.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,259.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 978.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,281.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 651.80 | 407.38 | 244.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,281.00 | 2,281.00 | 2,281.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -651.80 | -407.38 | -244.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,629.20 | 1,873.63 | 2,036.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 598.36 | 598.36 | 598.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.72 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.72 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.36 | 4.77 | 5.04 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.08% | -6.08% | -5.08% |
| Fair Value | $25.02 | $29.48 | $33.72 |
| Upside / Downside | -68.15% | -62.47% | -57.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,259.00 | 3,060.69 | 2,874.45 | 2,699.55 | 2,535.28 | 2,381.01 | 2,452.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 30.01% | 42.01% | 54.01% | 66.00% | 78.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 978.00 | 1,285.72 | 1,552.36 | 1,781.80 | 1,977.57 | 2,142.91 | 2,268.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.08% | -6.08% | -5.08% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,165.95 | 1,178.50 | 1,191.05 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,276.62 | 1,304.25 | 1,332.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,328.80 | 1,372.17 | 1,416.47 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,337.42 | 1,395.93 | 1,456.34 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,314.24 | 1,386.50 | 1,461.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,815.15 | 24,069.61 | 25,378.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 29,238.18 | 30,706.95 | 32,236.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 598.36 | 598.36 | 598.36 |
| Fair Value | $48.86 | $51.32 | $53.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -37.78% | -34.66% | -31.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |