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Definitive Analysis

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Arendals Fossekompani ASA (AFK.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$540.73 - $803.17$665.95
Multi-Stage$1,336.51 - $1,476.02$1,404.86
Blended Fair Value$1,035.41
Current Price$131.00
Upside690.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.35%-11.16%4.444.463.6731.904.162.480.2222.112.984.08
YoY Growth---0.35%21.48%-88.50%666.55%67.74%1,023.83%-99.00%642.82%-27.06%-71.85%
Dividend Yield--3.57%2.40%1.69%7.78%1.54%2.58%0.18%13.89%2.66%4.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,839.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)194.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,645.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)767.80479.88287.93
Cash Retained (M)3,645.003,645.003,645.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-767.80-479.88-287.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,877.203,165.133,357.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.3756.3756.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.0456.1559.56
LTM Dividend per Share3.443.443.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.0456.1559.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend54.4959.5963.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-3.39%-2.39%-1.39%
Fair Value$540.73$665.95$803.17
Upside / Downside312.77%408.36%513.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,839.003,747.243,657.673,570.243,484.903,401.603,503.65
Payout Ratio5.05%22.04%39.03%56.02%73.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)194.00825.991,427.662,000.102,544.353,061.443,240.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-3.39%-2.39%-1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)768.76776.71784.67
Year 2 PV (M)1,236.661,262.401,288.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,612.461,663.051,714.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,909.091,989.372,072.16
Year 5 PV (M)2,137.912,250.872,368.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,669.7071,245.1874,970.22
Equity Value (M)75,334.5879,187.5883,198.69
Shares Outstanding (M)56.3756.3756.37
Fair Value$1,336.51$1,404.86$1,476.02
Upside / Downside920.23%972.41%1,026.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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