Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Abrdn Plc (ABDN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.96 - $1.24$1.11
Multi-Stage$2.21 - $2.44$2.33
Blended Fair Value$1.72
Current Price$1.87
Upside-8.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.88%-3.87%0.140.150.170.170.260.280.870.250.201.13
YoY Growth---6.81%-9.12%-0.32%-35.70%-7.53%-67.97%244.78%26.76%-82.31%441.97%
Dividend Yield--9.95%8.61%8.77%6.90%9.20%8.52%33.96%5.79%5.37%28.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)636.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)527.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.2079.5047.70
Cash Retained (M)109.00109.00109.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.20-79.50-47.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.2029.5061.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,852.621,852.621,852.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-14.88%-13.88%-12.88%
Fair Value$0.96$1.11$1.24
Upside / Downside-48.42%-40.46%-33.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)636.00547.74471.72406.26349.88301.32310.36
Payout Ratio82.86%84.29%85.72%87.14%88.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)527.00461.68404.35354.03309.90271.19287.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-14.88%-13.88%-12.88%
Year 1 PV (M)417.27422.17427.08
Year 2 PV (M)330.30338.10346.00
Year 3 PV (M)261.38270.70280.24
Year 4 PV (M)206.78216.67226.91
Year 5 PV (M)163.55173.38183.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,722.862,886.603,058.13
Equity Value (M)4,102.144,307.634,522.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,852.621,852.621,852.62
Fair Value$2.21$2.33$2.44
Upside / Downside18.41%24.34%30.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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