Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Horizon Construction Development (9930.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.52 - $10.89$8.44
Multi-Stage$22.60 - $24.96$23.76
Blended Fair Value$16.10
Current Price$1.09
Upside1,377.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-20.25%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,793.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,791.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)358.74224.21134.53
Cash Retained (M)1,791.091,791.091,791.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-358.74-224.21-134.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,432.351,566.881,656.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,173.763,173.763,173.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.52$8.44$10.89
Upside / Downside497.87%674.51%899.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,793.681,775.741,757.981,740.401,723.001,705.771,756.94
Payout Ratio0.14%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.59321.68634.40940.821,241.061,535.191,625.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)303.85306.95310.05
Year 2 PV (M)566.01577.62589.35
Year 3 PV (M)792.88817.40842.42
Year 4 PV (M)987.931,028.871,071.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,154.331,214.441,277.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,922.6271,459.5175,142.23
Equity Value (M)71,727.6275,404.8079,232.16
Shares Outstanding (M)3,173.763,173.763,173.76
Fair Value$22.60$23.76$24.96
Upside / Downside1,973.41%2,079.71%2,190.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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