Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14.48 - $22.85 | $18.31 |
| Multi-Stage | $33.26 - $36.56 | $34.88 |
| Blended Fair Value | $26.59 | |
| Current Price | $22.90 | |
| Upside | 16.13% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.92% | -5.80% | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.69 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.99 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -8.33% | -20.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | -41.18% | 13.33% | 0.00% | -25.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.69% | 4.97% | 5.90% | 5.52% | 3.95% | 5.03% | 6.77% | 5.65% | 5.72% | 7.17% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 446.28 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 335.50 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 110.78 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 89.26 | 55.78 | 33.47 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 110.78 | 110.78 | 110.78 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -89.26 | -55.78 | -33.47 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 21.52 | 54.99 | 77.31 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 306.49 | 306.49 | 306.49 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.16 | 1.27 | 1.35 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -1.60% | -0.60% | 0.40% |
| Fair Value | $14.48 | $18.31 | $22.85 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.78% | -20.06% | -0.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 446.28 | 443.60 | 440.93 | 438.28 | 435.65 | 433.03 | 446.02 |
| Payout Ratio | 75.18% | 78.14% | 81.11% | 84.07% | 87.04% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 335.50 | 346.63 | 357.62 | 368.47 | 379.17 | 389.73 | 412.57 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -1.60% | -0.60% | 0.40% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 322.76 | 326.04 | 329.32 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 310.05 | 316.39 | 322.79 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 297.45 | 306.61 | 315.96 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 285.01 | 296.77 | 308.90 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 272.77 | 286.91 | 301.64 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,705.84 | 9,157.30 | 9,627.29 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,193.88 | 10,690.02 | 11,205.89 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 306.49 | 306.49 | 306.49 |
| Fair Value | $33.26 | $34.88 | $36.56 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.24% | 52.31% | 59.66% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |