Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $10.65 - $16.03 | $13.20 |
| Multi-Stage | $22.01 - $24.16 | $23.07 |
| Blended Fair Value | $18.13 | |
| Current Price | $15.50 | |
| Upside | 16.98% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.45 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 99.48% | 12.50% | 5.33% | -44.44% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.60% | 3.04% | 3.52% | 1.81% | 3.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 198.77 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 154.44 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 44.33 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 39.75 | 24.85 | 14.91 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 44.33 | 44.33 | 44.33 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -39.75 | -24.85 | -14.91 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4.58 | 19.48 | 29.42 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 157.97 | 157.97 | 157.97 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.26% | 7.26% | 7.26% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $10.65 | $13.20 | $16.03 |
| Upside / Downside | -31.27% | -14.86% | 3.43% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 198.77 | 196.78 | 194.81 | 192.86 | 190.93 | 189.03 | 194.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 77.70% | 80.16% | 82.62% | 85.08% | 87.54% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 154.44 | 157.73 | 160.95 | 164.09 | 167.14 | 170.12 | 180.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.26% | 7.26% | 7.26% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 145.57 | 147.06 | 148.54 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 137.09 | 139.90 | 142.74 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 128.98 | 132.97 | 137.04 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 121.26 | 126.28 | 131.46 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 113.90 | 119.83 | 126.01 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,830.51 | 2,977.90 | 3,131.37 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,477.31 | 3,643.94 | 3,817.16 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 157.97 | 157.97 | 157.97 |
| Fair Value | $22.01 | $23.07 | $24.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 42.02% | 48.82% | 55.90% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |