Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Okinawa Cellular Telephone Company (9436.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,607.67 - $5,767.73$3,757.41
Multi-Stage$3,322.67 - $3,643.70$3,480.16
Blended Fair Value$3,618.79
Current Price$2,612.00
Upside38.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.14%9.63%61.2051.0748.8147.7444.5639.5236.0331.9729.0626.75
YoY Growth--19.84%4.62%2.25%7.13%12.75%9.68%12.70%10.03%8.62%9.58%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.56%3.25%3.53%3.47%3.83%4.20%2.88%3.09%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,824.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,870.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,954.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,564.801,603.00961.80
Cash Retained (M)6,954.006,954.006,954.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,564.80-1,603.00-961.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,389.205,351.005,992.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)94.0694.0694.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share46.6756.8963.71
LTM Dividend per Share62.4162.4162.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share46.6756.8963.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend109.07119.30126.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.38%3.38%4.38%
Fair Value$2,607.67$3,757.41$5,767.73
Upside / Downside-0.17%43.85%120.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,824.0013,257.3613,705.3614,168.5114,647.3015,142.2715,596.54
Payout Ratio45.77%54.62%63.46%72.31%81.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,870.007,241.028,697.9910,245.1611,886.9713,628.0514,426.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.38%3.38%4.38%
Year 1 PV (M)6,723.106,788.776,854.44
Year 2 PV (M)7,498.247,645.447,794.06
Year 3 PV (M)8,200.308,442.958,690.33
Year 4 PV (M)8,833.909,184.139,544.68
Year 5 PV (M)9,403.409,871.7010,358.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)271,859.41285,398.40299,471.50
Equity Value (M)312,518.35327,331.39342,713.49
Shares Outstanding (M)94.0694.0694.06
Fair Value$3,322.67$3,480.16$3,643.70
Upside / Downside27.21%33.24%39.50%

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