Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yasuda Logistics Corporation (9324.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,317.16 - $5,426.72$3,404.28
Multi-Stage$1,710.47 - $1,867.93$1,787.78
Blended Fair Value$2,596.03
Current Price$2,118.00
Upside22.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.55%7.29%29.6627.0725.6226.5823.9920.6114.1914.2214.6414.67
YoY Growth--9.57%5.66%-3.64%10.79%16.42%45.26%-0.24%-2.83%-0.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.69%2.61%2.86%2.54%2.20%1.60%1.58%1.99%2.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,207.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,013.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,194.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)641.40400.88240.53
Cash Retained (M)2,194.002,194.002,194.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-641.40-400.88-240.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,552.601,793.131,953.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.9628.9628.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.6061.9167.44
LTM Dividend per Share34.9734.9734.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.6061.9167.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.5896.88102.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$2,317.16$3,404.28$5,426.72
Upside / Downside9.40%60.73%156.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,207.003,408.733,623.153,851.064,093.304,350.784,481.30
Payout Ratio31.59%43.27%54.95%66.63%78.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,013.001,474.951,991.002,566.153,205.773,915.704,145.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)1,336.571,349.261,361.96
Year 2 PV (M)1,634.941,666.141,697.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,909.521,964.452,020.42
Year 4 PV (M)2,161.672,244.972,330.65
Year 5 PV (M)2,392.662,508.472,628.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,108.4542,049.6344,065.26
Equity Value (M)49,543.8151,782.9254,104.63
Shares Outstanding (M)28.9628.9628.96
Fair Value$1,710.47$1,787.78$1,867.93
Upside / Downside-19.24%-15.59%-11.81%

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