Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TRE Holdings Corporation (9247.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50,638.04 - $66,145.37$61,987.90
Multi-Stage$11,008.26 - $12,066.94$11,527.80
Blended Fair Value$36,757.85
Current Price$1,555.00
Upside2,263.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS34.71%0.00%41.8342.1546.9516.9413.149.4311.859.638.706.22
YoY Growth---0.77%-10.23%177.23%28.88%39.40%-20.44%23.06%10.67%39.94%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.29%3.79%0.90%0.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,476.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)522.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,954.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,295.202,059.501,235.70
Cash Retained (M)15,954.0015,954.0015,954.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,295.20-2,059.50-1,235.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,658.8013,894.5014,718.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.5449.5449.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share255.54280.49297.12
LTM Dividend per Share10.5410.5410.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share255.54280.49297.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend266.08291.02307.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.05%6.05%6.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50,638.04$61,987.90$66,145.37
Upside / Downside3,156.47%3,886.36%4,153.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,476.0017,546.9418,687.4919,902.1821,195.8222,573.5523,250.75
Payout Ratio3.17%20.53%37.90%55.27%72.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)522.003,603.197,082.7410,999.4015,395.3020,316.1921,506.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.05%6.05%6.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,365.603,397.503,429.40
Year 2 PV (M)6,179.456,297.156,415.96
Year 3 PV (M)8,963.809,221.119,483.31
Year 4 PV (M)11,718.8612,169.5412,633.09
Year 5 PV (M)14,444.8915,142.5815,866.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)500,647.02524,828.46549,935.38
Equity Value (M)545,319.61571,056.34597,764.11
Shares Outstanding (M)49.5449.5449.54
Fair Value$11,008.26$11,527.80$12,066.94
Upside / Downside607.93%641.34%676.01%

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