Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Marubeni Corporation (8002.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,349.72 - $7,312.33$5,647.36
Multi-Stage$3,542.00 - $3,858.92$3,697.64
Blended Fair Value$4,672.50
Current Price$3,698.00
Upside26.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.75%12.79%89.0983.6976.8449.8429.8936.1737.2227.2620.9724.64
YoY Growth--6.45%8.91%54.17%66.75%-17.36%-2.81%36.54%30.00%-14.89%-7.84%
Dividend Yield--3.06%2.80%3.15%4.07%3.09%7.42%5.02%3.23%2.89%5.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)570,338.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157,575.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)412,763.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114,067.6071,292.2542,775.35
Cash Retained (M)412,763.00412,763.00412,763.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-114,067.60-71,292.25-42,775.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)298,695.40341,470.75369,987.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,655.391,655.391,655.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.44206.28223.50
LTM Dividend per Share95.1995.1995.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.44206.28223.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend275.63301.47318.69
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,349.72$5,647.36$7,312.33
Upside / Downside17.62%52.71%97.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)570,338.00607,409.97646,891.62688,939.57733,720.65781,412.49804,854.86
Payout Ratio27.63%40.10%52.58%65.05%77.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157,575.00243,587.69340,116.29448,164.43568,821.85703,271.24744,490.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)215,091.23217,130.01219,168.79
Year 2 PV (M)265,193.06270,244.25275,343.08
Year 3 PV (M)308,559.90317,417.55326,443.11
Year 4 PV (M)345,816.52359,115.65372,794.73
Year 5 PV (M)377,537.15395,772.34414,705.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,351,194.844,561,359.174,779,567.00
Equity Value (M)5,863,392.726,121,038.986,388,022.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,655.391,655.391,655.39
Fair Value$3,542.00$3,697.64$3,858.92
Upside / Downside-4.22%-0.01%4.35%

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