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Definitive Analysis

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Takara Standard Co.,Ltd. (7981.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,979.62 - $13,684.47$7,697.24
Multi-Stage$5,608.63 - $6,151.35$5,874.89
Blended Fair Value$6,786.06
Current Price$2,613.00
Upside159.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.26%6.25%56.1755.1862.5140.4837.1736.0835.0032.8231.7330.65
YoY Growth--1.79%-11.73%54.43%8.89%3.03%3.08%6.65%3.44%3.51%0.05%
Dividend Yield--2.31%3.18%3.40%3.24%2.45%2.36%2.00%1.78%1.73%1.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,156.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,270.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,886.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,831.201,769.501,061.70
Cash Retained (M)8,886.008,886.008,886.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,831.20-1,769.50-1,061.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,054.807,116.507,824.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.8566.8566.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share90.57106.46117.04
LTM Dividend per Share78.8378.8378.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share90.57106.46117.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend169.41185.29195.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Fair Value$4,979.62$7,697.24$13,684.47
Upside / Downside90.57%194.57%423.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,156.0014,714.1015,294.2115,897.1816,523.9317,175.3917,690.65
Payout Ratio37.23%47.78%58.34%68.89%79.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,270.007,030.758,922.1510,951.7613,127.5415,457.8516,363.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Year 1 PV (M)6,541.536,605.086,668.63
Year 2 PV (M)7,723.697,874.488,026.73
Year 3 PV (M)8,820.999,080.569,345.17
Year 4 PV (M)9,837.7110,225.5810,624.80
Year 5 PV (M)10,777.9911,311.7511,866.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)331,229.20347,632.88364,680.12
Equity Value (M)374,931.11392,730.33411,211.90
Shares Outstanding (M)66.8566.8566.85
Fair Value$5,608.63$5,874.89$6,151.35
Upside / Downside114.64%124.83%135.41%

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