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Definitive Analysis

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Ricoh Company, Ltd. (7752.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,199.59 - $1,976.04$1,544.55
Multi-Stage$2,474.02 - $2,722.21$2,595.70
Blended Fair Value$2,070.12
Current Price$1,306.50
Upside58.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.15%-0.98%38.3737.1832.5024.5225.9032.8622.1225.2950.5743.62
YoY Growth--3.21%14.40%32.56%-5.34%-21.18%48.53%-12.51%-50.00%15.94%2.98%
Dividend Yield--2.81%2.65%2.66%2.31%2.08%4.27%2.06%2.49%5.10%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61,018.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,960.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,058.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,203.607,627.254,576.35
Cash Retained (M)39,058.0039,058.0039,058.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,203.60-7,627.25-4,576.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,854.4031,430.7534,481.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)573.37573.37573.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share46.8454.8260.14
LTM Dividend per Share38.3038.3038.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share46.8454.8260.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend85.1493.1298.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-0.75%0.25%1.25%
Fair Value$1,199.59$1,544.55$1,976.04
Upside / Downside-8.18%18.22%51.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61,018.0061,172.2961,326.9761,482.0461,637.5061,793.3563,647.15
Payout Ratio35.99%46.79%57.59%68.40%79.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,960.0028,623.4335,320.4342,051.1048,815.5955,614.0258,873.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-0.75%0.25%1.25%
Year 1 PV (M)26,659.2326,927.8327,196.43
Year 2 PV (M)30,639.2131,259.7231,886.44
Year 3 PV (M)33,974.6435,011.9336,070.12
Year 4 PV (M)36,733.4638,236.3839,784.96
Year 5 PV (M)38,977.4540,980.9643,066.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,251,552.941,315,884.991,382,835.67
Equity Value (M)1,418,536.921,488,301.801,560,839.64
Shares Outstanding (M)573.37573.37573.37
Fair Value$2,474.02$2,595.70$2,722.21
Upside / Downside89.36%98.68%108.36%

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