Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (7011.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,581.88 - $3,707.70$2,324.65
Multi-Stage$1,133.55 - $1,237.58$1,184.62
Blended Fair Value$1,754.64
Current Price$3,879.00
Upside-54.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.46%9.86%22.9714.9711.4711.977.6413.9712.4711.9711.9911.99
YoY Growth--53.44%30.52%-4.21%56.71%-45.31%12.04%4.18%-0.19%0.03%33.61%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.86%1.71%2.52%2.34%5.49%2.62%2.97%2.61%2.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)253,242.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77,130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)176,112.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50,648.4031,655.2518,993.15
Cash Retained (M)176,112.00176,112.00176,112.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-50,648.40-31,655.25-18,993.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)125,463.60144,456.75157,118.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,359.903,359.903,359.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.3442.9946.76
LTM Dividend per Share22.9622.9622.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.3442.9946.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.3065.9569.72
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,581.88$2,324.65$3,707.70
Upside / Downside-59.22%-40.07%-4.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)253,242.00269,702.73287,233.41305,903.58325,787.31346,963.49357,372.39
Payout Ratio30.46%42.37%54.27%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77,130.00114,261.25155,893.69202,455.59254,411.89312,267.14330,569.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103,348.17104,327.77105,307.37
Year 2 PV (M)127,536.99129,966.21132,418.35
Year 3 PV (M)149,810.14154,110.65158,492.68
Year 4 PV (M)170,275.68176,824.00183,559.41
Year 5 PV (M)189,036.34198,166.87207,646.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,068,597.283,216,811.683,370,698.59
Equity Value (M)3,808,604.603,980,207.184,158,123.24
Shares Outstanding (M)3,359.903,359.903,359.90
Fair Value$1,133.55$1,184.62$1,237.58
Upside / Downside-70.78%-69.46%-68.10%

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