Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,082.98 - $8,790.88$4,817.85
Multi-Stage$3,216.74 - $3,525.16$3,368.07
Blended Fair Value$4,092.96
Current Price$2,815.50
Upside45.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.13%12.33%54.7950.9549.6341.4136.2432.3231.0627.5425.1822.84
YoY Growth--7.54%2.65%19.85%14.29%12.10%4.08%12.77%9.36%10.27%33.33%
Dividend Yield--2.54%1.56%1.81%1.68%1.28%1.54%1.83%1.33%1.33%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235,877.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106,443.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)129,434.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,175.4029,484.6317,690.78
Cash Retained (M)129,434.00129,434.00129,434.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,175.40-29,484.63-17,690.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)82,258.6099,949.38111,743.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,854.001,854.001,854.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.3753.9160.27
LTM Dividend per Share57.4157.4157.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.3753.9160.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.32117.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$3,082.98$4,817.85$8,790.88
Upside / Downside9.50%71.12%212.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235,877.00245,939.17256,430.57267,369.52278,775.11290,667.25299,387.27
Payout Ratio45.13%54.10%63.08%72.05%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106,443.00133,056.01161,745.87192,641.33225,878.36261,600.53276,933.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)123,533.93124,730.20125,926.47
Year 2 PV (M)139,423.73142,137.09144,876.60
Year 3 PV (M)154,171.73158,694.12163,304.09
Year 4 PV (M)167,834.66174,430.77181,219.43
Year 5 PV (M)180,466.83189,375.68198,632.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,198,401.535,455,023.685,721,681.88
Equity Value (M)5,963,832.406,244,391.556,535,641.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,854.001,854.001,854.00
Fair Value$3,216.74$3,368.07$3,525.16
Upside / Downside14.25%19.63%25.21%

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