Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tianneng Battery Group Co., Ltd. (688819.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.27 - $54.52$37.01
Multi-Stage$36.71 - $40.29$38.47
Blended Fair Value$37.74
Current Price$32.70
Upside15.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.86%11.06%0.920.810.830.600.971.841.150.310.560.42
YoY Growth--14.31%-2.44%38.00%-38.34%-47.04%60.13%265.99%-43.59%33.16%29.01%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.72%2.40%1.86%2.08%2.99%1.87%0.51%0.90%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,450.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)587.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.03181.27108.76
Cash Retained (M)862.85862.85862.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.03-181.27-108.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)572.82681.58754.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)972.03972.03972.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.311.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.91%2.91%3.91%
Fair Value$26.27$37.01$54.52
Upside / Downside-19.67%13.17%66.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,450.151,492.311,535.691,580.341,626.291,673.571,723.77
Payout Ratio40.50%50.40%60.30%70.20%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)587.29752.11926.011,109.391,302.651,506.211,594.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.91%2.91%3.91%
Year 1 PV (M)699.10705.96712.82
Year 2 PV (M)800.08815.85831.79
Year 3 PV (M)890.96917.44944.45
Year 4 PV (M)972.431,011.161,051.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,045.131,097.431,151.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,277.1032,842.1034,469.13
Equity Value (M)35,684.7937,389.9439,161.02
Shares Outstanding (M)972.03972.03972.03
Fair Value$36.71$38.47$40.29
Upside / Downside12.27%17.63%23.20%

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