Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Fuxin Technology Co., Ltd. (688662.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.53 - $3.45$3.00
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.57$5.32
Blended Fair Value$4.16
Current Price$48.52
Upside-91.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-34.54%0.00%0.030.280.420.360.340.270.170.150.000.00
YoY Growth---88.64%-33.79%19.08%4.02%29.08%53.03%15.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%1.04%1.26%1.15%0.95%0.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.785.493.29
Cash Retained (M)11.2511.2511.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.78-5.49-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.475.767.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)87.1187.1187.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-5.81%-4.81%-3.81%
Fair Value$2.53$3.00$3.45
Upside / Downside-94.78%-93.82%-92.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.9141.8039.7937.8836.0534.3235.35
Payout Ratio74.38%77.50%80.63%83.75%86.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.6632.4032.0831.7231.3230.8932.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-5.81%-4.81%-3.81%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3629.6729.98
Year 2 PV (M)26.3526.9127.48
Year 3 PV (M)23.6124.3725.14
Year 4 PV (M)21.1222.0422.98
Year 5 PV (M)18.8819.9020.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)322.82340.32358.58
Equity Value (M)442.13463.20485.12
Shares Outstanding (M)87.1187.1187.11
Fair Value$5.08$5.32$5.57
Upside / Downside-89.54%-89.04%-88.52%

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