Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Prisemi Electronics Co.,Ltd. (688230.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.71 - $37.25$24.14
Multi-Stage$20.21 - $22.10$21.14
Blended Fair Value$22.64
Current Price$85.32
Upside-73.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS8.34%0.00%0.590.420.300.000.160.400.670.000.000.00
YoY Growth--40.00%40.00%0.00%-100.00%-59.90%-40.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.31%1.26%0.60%0.00%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5312.837.70
Cash Retained (M)8.568.568.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.53-12.83-7.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.97-4.270.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.98118.98118.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.040.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.040.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate2.77%3.77%4.77%
Fair Value$16.71$24.14$37.25
Upside / Downside-80.42%-71.71%-56.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.64106.51110.52114.68119.00123.49127.19
Payout Ratio91.66%91.33%90.99%90.66%90.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.0897.27100.57103.98107.50111.14117.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate2.77%3.77%4.77%
Year 1 PV (M)90.0290.9091.77
Year 2 PV (M)86.1487.8289.52
Year 3 PV (M)82.4284.8587.33
Year 4 PV (M)78.8681.9885.18
Year 5 PV (M)75.4579.2083.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,991.182,089.972,192.63
Equity Value (M)2,404.082,514.712,629.52
Shares Outstanding (M)118.98118.98118.98
Fair Value$20.21$21.14$22.10
Upside / Downside-76.32%-75.23%-74.10%

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