Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech Co., Ltd. (688016.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.63 - $205.54$115.43
Multi-Stage$52.91 - $57.69$55.26
Blended Fair Value$85.34
Current Price$111.60
Upside-23.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS82.09%0.00%3.691.351.240.530.380.180.520.310.060.00
YoY Growth--172.10%9.52%133.33%38.46%107.94%-64.84%71.12%408.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.09%1.07%1.07%0.38%0.20%0.18%0.49%0.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)377.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)245.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.5647.2328.34
Cash Retained (M)131.98131.98131.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.56-47.23-28.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.4184.75103.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.24122.24122.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.690.85
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.690.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.63$115.43$205.54
Upside / Downside-33.12%3.43%84.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)377.82402.38428.53456.39486.05517.64533.17
Payout Ratio65.07%70.05%75.04%80.03%85.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)245.84281.88321.57365.23413.21465.88493.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)256.19258.62261.05
Year 2 PV (M)265.63270.69275.79
Year 3 PV (M)274.19282.06290.08
Year 4 PV (M)281.94292.78303.93
Year 5 PV (M)288.90302.86317.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,101.285,347.675,603.49
Equity Value (M)6,468.126,754.677,051.69
Shares Outstanding (M)122.24122.24122.24
Fair Value$52.91$55.26$57.69
Upside / Downside-52.59%-50.49%-48.31%

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